A quick look at where the 2006 Senate races are headed

Here's a good thread on Free Republic about the 2006 Senate races as a whole. Here was my post in response to the questions posed in the thread:
Will Hoeven run in ND?

I don't know, but I hope so.

Can the GOP actually take one from the Great Lakes states?

Kennedy will most likely take Minnesota. Butler in Michigan is a long shot against Stabenow, he needs fundraising. No way GOP can win Wisconsin

Is Ohio REALLY in play?


Is Santorum already dead and buried?

No, he can be saved, but it will will cost a lot of money, and I personally would like to see Rove take over his campaign.

Is Florida trending GOP, and can we pick-up Nelson's seat?

I don't know about trending, but I would say it's doubtful that Harris could beat him. Rep. Foley maybe could win if he wasn't forced to spend all his money to beat Harris in a primary.

Can the GOP win back Jefford's seat? Who could do it?

Not sure, but probably not. I think the Lt. Governor of Vermont (R) just declared like yesterday, but I haven't seen any polling. But I think a well funded candidate has a chance seeing as how Sanders is independent.

Is Byrd an inevitable winner in a state that might be renamed after him in the next ten years?

No, but it is going to be harder than it should be. Capito is a good candidate and one would think that the more WV really knows about Byrd, the less they will want to vote for him.

Is there a true dark horse race out there where the GOP can pull an unexpected upset?

I think Steele in MD is too good to be called a dark horse, but Cardin is a worthy challenge. Butler in Michigan perhaps, or maybe even a challenger to Cantwell in WA. The real dark horse would be the guy running against Chaffee in the GOP primary beating him and then winning the general election, but that horse is so dark I can't see it happening.

What will the final tally be?

Worst case: GOP loses PA, MT, TN (Frist's seat now) and one of MO, RI, or WY. All dems hold GOP -4 (less than 10% chance of this). GOP STILL HAS MAJORITY.

Best Case: Santorum pulls the miracle off, GOP gains MN, WV, MD, ND and one of WA, MI, VT, or FL. GOP +5 (Making the Rinos more irrelevant)

Most likely case: Santorum goes down, Chaffee wins in RI, Kennedy takes MN for pubs, Burns holds on in MT, Nelson wins in FL, Stabenow holds MI, Cantwell reelected in WA, Byrd wins in WV, Pub candidate holds TN, Hoeven wins ND, Socialist Bernie wins VT (we'll count him as a dem), Nelson keeps NE, and Steele beats Cardin for the MD seat, giving us: GOP +2

I don't see the GOP gaining more than 3 seats or losing seats in 2006.


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