Finally a new Governor poll!

The Chicago Tribune has a new poll out testing both Blagojevich's support (or lack thereof) and the potential of various GOP primary candidates. I'd like to see some more polls on head to head matchups, but the info given will suffice for now.

On the Blago side, only 35% of voters said they would like to see him reelected, and under 40% are satisfied with the job he has done. Since the conventional wisdom is that a candidate with ratings below 50% is vulnerable, these numbers bode well for Republicans. Unfortunately Blago already has $14 million to spend attacking his opponent and defending himself.

On the GOP side, the poll indicates Judy Baar Topinka would have a run-away win in the primary. Unfortunately, it's not at all certain that she will run, and my sense is that she doesn't really want the governor's job. Oberweis comes in 2nd, and would be the front runner if Baar Topinka opted out. I don't know what it is, but I get bad vibes from him, and the rich, fiery brand of conservatism doesn't strike me as sellable in a general election. The two conservatives I like, State Sens. Bill Brady and Rauschenberger seem to be splitting the conservative primary vote. Topinka's lead may be insurmountable, but without her I think Bill Brady needs to drop out and run for Lt. Gov. to help Rauschenberger defeat Oberweis in a primary. I think Rauschenberger could win, and it would be no harder for him to win than Oberweis. Joe Birkett and Ron Gidwitz are meaningless, money-wasting sideshows, polling less than 5%. Both need to drop out and consider runs for other state offices.


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